This workshop teaches cybersecurity practitioners how to quantify the probability of a material cyber event and build a Loss Exceedance Curve for their organization. Participants learn practical risk-forecasting methods (Bayes’ theorem, Fermi estimation, superforecasting, and Monte Carlo simulation) through hands-on exercises. Drawing on lessons from key cyber risk books and Cybersecurity First Principles, the session replaces theoretical discussion with real-world techniques. By the end, attendees will construct a first-draft Loss Exceedance Curve using a provided risk calculator. 

* Please note: This is not included in the Main Conference registration and requires a separate registration.